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ISTMA 2007:
Worldwide Business Conditions

By Harry C. Moser, President, ISTMA Americas & Chairman, Agie Charmilles

Source: ISTMA Member Assembly

Joensuu, Finland, June 9, 2007

 

 

The ISTMA member country tool and die associations presented the most recent Business Conditions Reports’ on June 9th.  Timeliness ranges from December ’06 to 1Q07.

 

 

Reports on Business Conditions:

 

Africa:

South Africa

  • Tool and die demand >0.6 billion Euro/year
  • 20% supplied locally

 

Americas:

Argentina

  • hours/week = 49
  • 88%  rate business Good or Very Good
  • optimistic

 

 

Canada

  • strong in resources and mining
  • soft in machining and tool making
  • hurt by the high Canadian $
  • hours/week = 41
  • Backlog = 9.6 weeks

 

 

U.S.

  • Agie Charmilles Indexes:
    • Machining Business Activity Index = 67 (50 is no change)
    • Medical Device Sector strongest, recovering after period of downturn.
    • Financial Liquidity Index in April '07 = 526.  Strongest on record. 
      100 is the average of the decade of the 1990s.
  • NTMA:
    • Aerospace and defense strong.
    • Molds and dies less strong
    • Overall down slightly from 7/06 to 12/06
    • Hours/week = 46.5
    • Severe shortage of machinists. Most recent NTMA/Agie Charmilles survey showed 10% job vacancies.
    • Backlog 14 weeks
    • Generally optimistic

 

Asia:

Australia:

  • Business mostly Fair (worse than Good)
  • Hrs./week = 41.7

 

 

China:

  • Tooling, die and mold:
    • Exports +44% of which molds are 80%
    • Total higher than $1 billion
    • Imports 7%
    • Total production $7-8 billion

 

 

India:

  • Booming
  • Telecom and automotive strong
  • Tooling:
    • Huge imports
    • Still locally busy
    • Growing as 2nd or 3rd source to large companies
    • Training a lot of machinists

 

 

Japan:

  • Tooling:
    • 80% of shops are small
    • $14 billion production excluding captive tooling
  • Government is supporting the industry
  • Small companies import

 

Europe:

Czech Republic:

  • all measures are up
  • output +12%
  • employment +2%

 

 

Estonia:

  • Inflation up due to tight labor market
  • Tooling:
    • Busy
    • Compensation up 40-50% 2005 to 2007 to average $1,300/month
    • Average work week 44 hours
    • Backlog = 10 weeks
    • 10% growth/year
    • 85% export:  Sweden, Germany, Finland, Norway, Denmark
    • No corporate income tax

 

 

Finland:

  • Manufacturing is at full capacity - best in history
  • Tool & Die - good not great

 

 

France:

  • GDP +2%
  • Exports +3%
  • Mechanical Industry +5.8%
  • Automotive leaving France

 

 

Germany:

  • Tool and Die Industry
    • 5,000 companies
    • 807 <20 employees
  • 4.1 billion Euro output
  • Export to:  U.S., Switz, Czech
  • 4/07 YTD vs. 4/06 YTD
    • Shipment +4.5%
    • Orders +14%
    • Overall excellent because:
      • invested a lot
      • R & D
      • Better organization

 

 

Italy:

  • GDP down
  • Inflation 1.5%
  • Industrial Production +1%
  • Tool & Die +6%

 

 

Latvia:

  • Inflation 7%

 

 

Portugal:

  • Molds:  90% export, 65% automotive
  • Terms are an issue.
  • Exports +13%
    • 72% to EU, generally:  France, Germany, Spain, U.S.

 

 

Russia:

  • Mold market is booming.

 

 

Slovenia:

  • Economy +5.1%
  • Primarily export
  • Shortage of skilled employees

 

 

Spain:

  • Manufacturing recovering
  • Construction down
  • Tooling:
    • Orders up
    • Investment up
    • Exchange rate hurting
    • Trade with China increasing
    • Wages high
    • HSM and rapid prototyping up
    • Cannot find young workers

 

 

Switzerland:

  • Mechanical/electrical engineering industry:  +17%
  • Die Mold:
    • Exports 1Q07 87.4M Euro
    • (approximately 73% of production): to Germany, Italy, Austria, France, China, U.S.
    • Minus 10.8% vs. 1Q06
    • Outlook:  favorable
    • 510 companies

 

 

Turkey:

  • Imports 60% of tooling consumption
  • EDM shop rate approx. 25 Euro/hour
  • Strong growth in automotive and white goods

 

 

UK:

  • GDP +2.9%
  • Currency too strong
  • Aerospace very strong, but skill and capacity shortage
  • Capital spending up.
  • Toolmaking:  suffering
  • Bringing molding inhouse
  • Dental device demand strong
  • Microsurgery strong